Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets

We study the performance of Virtual Stock Markets (VSMs) in an institutional forecasting environment. We compare VSMs to the Combined Judgmental Forecast (CJF) and the Key Informant (KI) approach. We find that VSMs can be effectively applied in an environment with a small number of knowledgeable informants, i.e., in thin markets. Our results show that none of the three approaches differ in forecasting accuracy in a low knowledge-heterogeneity environment. However, where there is high knowledge-heterogeneity, the VSM approach outperforms the CJF approach, which in turn outperforms the KI approach. Hence, our results provide useful insight into when each of the three approaches might be most effectively applied.Forecasting;Electronic Markets;Information Markets;Virtual Stock Markets

Channel Power in Multi-Channel Environments

In the literature, little attention has been paid to instances where companies add an Internet channel to their direct channel portfolio. However, actively managing multiple sales channels requires knowing the customers’ channel preferences and the resulting channel power. Two key components of channel power are (i) the existing customers’ intrinsic loyalty to a channel, and (ii) the channel’s ability to attract new customers. We apply the Colombo and Morrison (1989) model to analyze the channel loyalty and conquesting power of two direct channels operated by a given firm. In addition, we analyze the evolution over time in each channel’s power, and test for differences in channel power among different product categories offered by the firm, and among different customer segments

Do retailers benefit from the long tail phenomenon?

The Internet and related technologies have vastly expanded the variety of products that can be profitably promoted and sold by online retailers. As a result, while in most offline markets, a few best selling products (blockbusters) generate the bulk of demand, online demand for blockbusters is often accompanied by sales for a huge number of less-selling products (niches). In response to emerging long-tailed sales distribution patterns, Anderson (2004, 2006) coined the phrase Long Tail to describe the phenomenon that niche products can gain a significant share in total sales. Most important from a retailers' perspective is whether additionally offered niche products mainly substitute former existing ones or if consumers expand their demand. While the latter can generate additional profit, substitution is only beneficial if substitutes have higher margins than products that were purchased before. By using a unique data set of a monopolistic video-on-demand operator in Germany that covers all individual sales since its launch from December 2004 until August 2007, we disentangle demand for additional offered films into substitution and additional consumption. Our results reveal that demand of additionally offered films is driven by on average 86.10% additional consumption and only 13.90% substitution, suggesting huge profit potential for retailers by increasing their assortments. © 2010 IADIS

Institutional Forecasting: The Performance of Thin Virtual Stock Markets

We study the performance of Virtual Stock Markets (VSMs) in an institutional forecasting environment. We compare VSMs to the Combined Judgmental Forecast (CJF) and the Key Informant (KI) approach. We find that VSMs can be effectively applied in an environment with a small number of knowledgeable informants, i.e., in thin markets. Our results show that none of the three approaches differ in forecasting accuracy in a low knowledge-heterogeneity environment. However, where there is high knowledge-heterogeneity, the VSM approach outperforms the CJF approach, which in turn outperforms the KI approach. Hence, our results provide useful insight into when each of the three approaches might be most effectively applied

Beyond posted prices: the past, present and future of participative pricing mechanisms

Driven by the low transaction costs and interactive nature of the internet, customer participation in the price-setting process has increased. These changes were first brought about by the rise of online auctions in the early 2000s, followed by the emergence of newer participative mechanisms. Today, platforms such as eBay have popularized online auctions on a global scale, Priceline has made headlines with its name-your-own-price (NYOP) business model, and Humble Bundle has enabled independent musicians and game developers to market their works through pay-what-you-want (PWYW) pricing. Advertising exchanges conduct several hundred million individual auctions per day to sell online advertising slots. These are just a few examples of participative pricing in transactions among consumers or businesses. In parallel, academic research on participative pricing has blossomed in recent years, with an overarching concern over the profitability and other marketing implications these mechanisms have on sellers and buyers. The present paper contributes to this literature in three ways. First, we propose a definition of participative pricing mechanisms, as well as a useful taxonomy. Second, we discuss the current understanding by synthesizing conceptual and empirical academic literature. Third, we outline promising research questions with a key focus on the related behavioral aspects of buyers and sellers

Channel Power in Multi-Channel Environments

In the literature, little attention has been paid to instances where companies add an Internet channel to their direct channel portfolio. However, actively managing multiple sales channels requires knowing the customers’ channel preferences and the resulting channel power. Two key components of channel power are (i) the existing customers’ intrinsic loyalty to a channel, and (ii) the channel’s ability to attract new customers. We apply the Colombo and Morrison (1989) model to analyze the channel loyalty and conquesting power of two direct channels operated by a given firm. In addition, we analyze the evolution over time in each channel’s power, and test for differences in channel power among different product categories offered by the firm, and among different customer segments.Colombo-Morrison model;channel loyalty;channel power;conquesting power;internet marketing